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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1390

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, August 29, 2018 19:23:03
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 291922
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 291922
    TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-OKZ000-292145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1390
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0222 PM CDT Wed Aug 29 2018

    Areas affected...Central Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 291922Z - 292145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are the primary threat with
    the stronger storms. A WW issuance is not expected at this time.

    DISCUSSION...Several disorganized cells have recently intensified
    and congealed along the leading edge of a cold pool, remnant from
    earlier organized convection. The intensification/congealment of
    these cells, roughly located along a line from ARG, to BVX and ASG,
    may assist in reinforcing the cold pool, with the southward
    propagation of a loosely organized convective cluster possible.

    Flow throughout the troposphere is very weak across the discussion
    area, with relatively deep-moisture extending up to around 700 mb
    (as noted by RAP forecast soundings), contributing to a strongly
    unstable environment (i.e 3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE). As such, stronger
    updrafts will have the propensity to generate more intense water
    loading and resultant strong outflow, with damaging wind gusts
    possible.

    Still, severe gusts are expected to be isolated and as such, a WW
    issuance is not expected at this time.

    ..Squitieri/Dial.. 08/29/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...TSA...

    LAT...LON 36459463 36079347 36079194 36349095 36438995 35918958
    35208996 34479047 34419059 34189226 34609371 35619443
    36459463



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