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ACUS11 KWNS 291855
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291855
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-292130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1388
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CDT Wed Aug 29 2018

Areas affected...Central and Eastern Ohio...Western Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 291855Z - 292130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with
stronger cores embedded within a squall line. A WW issuance is not
expected at this time.

DISCUSSION...A cold front extending from far northern New England,
across Lake Erie, to east-central Indiana, is moving southeastward,
providing enough low-level convergence to support deep-moist
convection along much of the front.

The ambient kinematic environment is characterized by nearly
unidirectional shear throughout the troposphere (with marginal speed
shear in the 0-3km layer), resulting in 30 knot bulk effective shear
vectors oriented roughly normal to the cold front. As such, linear
storm structures are expected to be the predominant mode throughout
the afternoon. Despite poor mid-level lapse rates (mainly under 5
C/km), deep moisture within the sfc-850 mb layer, along with
temperatures in the upper 80s, are contributing to 1500-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE across the discussion area, supporting the potential for
updrafts of modest intensity/organization when factoring in the 30
knots of effective bulk shear. The weaker low-level shear and poor
mid-level lapse rates suggest that isolated damaging wind gusts
associated with water-loaded downdrafts will be the primary severe
threat for the next few hours.

Given the isolated and marginal extent of the severe threat, a WW
issuance is not currently anticipated.

..Squitieri/Dial.. 08/29/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON 41368329 41488307 41828245 42128143 42148040 41947987
41407973 40807999 40138072 39798146 39878232 40278318
41098335 41368329



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