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ACUS11 KWNS 291719
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291719
VTZ000-NYZ000-291915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1387
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Wed Aug 29 2018

Areas affected...Northern NY...Northern/Central VT

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 291719Z - 291915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few damaging wind gusts may occur this afternoon as
thunderstorm coverage increases over northern NY and
northern/central VT.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to gradually increase in
coverage over eastern Ontario ahead of the approaching cold front.
Current storm motion suggests these storms will likely reach the
international border around 18 to 19Z. Visible satellite imagery
also shows an increasingly agitated cu field over northern NY and northern/central VT, evidence of at least subtle lift amidst airmass destabilization. Continued diurnal heating over the next few hours
will help push temperature to around 90 deg F while dewpoints remain
in the low 70s. However, overall instability within this
thermodynamically favorable low-level airmass will be tempered
somewhat by warm mid-level temperatures and poor mid-level lapse
rates.

Mid-level flow will continue to increase across the region as the
shortwave trough currently over central Ontario and the Upper Great
Lakes progresses eastward. Resulting increase in vertical shear may
support more updraft persistence and organization than would
otherwise by anticipated within the marginal thermodynamic
environment. Overall expectation is for predominately multicell
storms along and ahead of the front but a few supercells are
possible. Given the relatively fast storm motion and presence of
around 40 kt of flow around in 1-2 km ARL layer (evidenced by the
CCX VAD), the potential exist for a damaging wind gusts within the
stronger, more persistent storms.

..Mosier/Dial.. 08/29/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON 43997628 44577566 44987491 45187309 44857177 43837237
43537407 43387607 43997628



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