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ACUS11 KWNS 010113
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010113
SDZ000-NEZ000-010245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0301
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0813 PM CDT Mon Apr 30 2018

Areas affected...Central/northeast NE...Southeast SD

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 58...

Valid 010113Z - 010245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 58
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe wind and hail risk will likely continue across
WW 58 until around 02-03Z, before a weakening trend commences.

DISCUSSION...Several strong/potentially severe thunderstorms are
ongoing across portions of north-central NE at 01Z, with activity
beginning to spread into southeast SD. Some upscale growth has been
noted, and some localized corridors of damaging wind will be
possible in the short term with any sustained bowing segments.
Meanwhile, moderate MLCAPE of around 1000-1500 J/kg, steep midlevel
lapse rates (as noted on regional 01/00Z soundings), and effective
shear of 30-40 kt will support a continued threat of severe hail
with the strongest updrafts.

A loosely organized MCS may eventually evolve later this evening out
of the ongoing storms, though the overall convective intensity is
expected to decrease with time as MLCINH increases, given the poor
quality of low-level moisture noted on regional soundings. However,
some localized strong wind gust risk may persist into later this
evening with the decaying convective system, given potential for
momentum transfer from aloft.

..Dean.. 05/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON 41110080 41689985 43059861 44019834 44509815 44539715
44349670 43739660 42799668 41929728 41369805 41089857
40999939 40990015 41110080



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ACUS11 KWNS 110319
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110319
NEZ000-KSZ000-110745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0301
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1019 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2019

Areas affected...Far northwest Kansas into central Nebraska

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 110319Z - 110745Z

SUMMARY...A wintry mix, transitioning to a heavy snow threat from
west to east, is expected to continue over the next several hours.
Heavy snowfall rates of up to 1 inch/hr are possible, and blizzard
conditions may be realized at a few locales.

DISCUSSION...A 986 mb surface low, currently located across central
Kansas, continues to track eastward in tandem with a potent 500 mb
shortwave trough now ejecting into the central Plains. Large scale
925-700 mb WAA is currently underway across the central Plains, with
formidable 700 mb frontogenesis in place across the Kansas/Nebraska
border, fostering large-scale lift within a near-saturated dendritic
growth zone (-12 C to -17 C layer). Much of the wintry precipitation
so far has been mixed, from Lincoln County, Nebraska eastward (based
on high ZDR and CC signatures from recent KLNX dual-polarimetric
radar data). Farther west, heavy blowing snow with 1/4 mile
visibility has been reported in Dundy County, Nebraska, where
substantial sfc-850 mb CAA has been noted by 02Z Mesoanalysis data.

Latest RAP forecast soundings, 21Z SREF, and 00Z HREF ensemble
guidance suggests that up to 1 inch/hr snowfall rates are likely to
continue across much of western/central Nebraska for several hours,
with locally higher values possible where convective enhancement
occurs. As heavier snow develops, and as the surface low tracks
eastward overnight, 20-30 mph surface winds are expected to
accompany some of the heavier snow rates, with occasional blizzard
conditions possible.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 04/11/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON 39270150 39470181 40280151 42340128 42560094 42650023
42689947 42489878 42239812 41989807 41369863 40479950
39950030 39550065 39270150



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