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ACUS11 KWNS 282145
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282145
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-282245-
Mesoscale Discussion 1382
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0445 PM CDT Tue Aug 28 2018
Areas affected...Southern Iowa and Northern Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 282145Z - 282245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...The severe weather threat is increasing across southern
Iowa and northern Missouri. A watch is likely.
DISCUSSION...Several strong storms have developed ahead of a line of
weak convection which moved out of eastern Nebraska. These storms
have developed in a very unstable environment with deep layer shear
around 35 to 40 knots. These storms have quickly taken advantage of
this favorable environment and started exhibiting supercell
structures. These storms will pose a threat of large hail and
damaging winds as they move northeastward. Additional storm
development is possible on the southern end of this activity, but
limited mid-level flow will limit the severe threat with southern
extent. Veered low-level flow and higher LCLs will limit the tornado
threat across northern Missouri, however there may be a greater
tornado threat in southeast Iowa where surface winds are more backed
and LCLs are lower in the vicinity of an outflow boundary from
earlier convection.
..Bentley/Thompson.. 08/28/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 41469368 41679291 41949184 41919107 41639078 41029088
40429121 40109187 39769296 39529399 39399444 39409478
39819533 40069540 40809473 41469368
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