• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1382

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, August 28, 2018 21:45:59
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    ACUS11 KWNS 282145
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 282145
    ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-282245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1382
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0445 PM CDT Tue Aug 28 2018

    Areas affected...Southern Iowa and Northern Missouri

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

    Valid 282145Z - 282245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe weather threat is increasing across southern
    Iowa and northern Missouri. A watch is likely.

    DISCUSSION...Several strong storms have developed ahead of a line of
    weak convection which moved out of eastern Nebraska. These storms
    have developed in a very unstable environment with deep layer shear
    around 35 to 40 knots. These storms have quickly taken advantage of
    this favorable environment and started exhibiting supercell
    structures. These storms will pose a threat of large hail and
    damaging winds as they move northeastward. Additional storm
    development is possible on the southern end of this activity, but
    limited mid-level flow will limit the severe threat with southern
    extent. Veered low-level flow and higher LCLs will limit the tornado
    threat across northern Missouri, however there may be a greater
    tornado threat in southeast Iowa where surface winds are more backed
    and LCLs are lower in the vicinity of an outflow boundary from
    earlier convection.

    ..Bentley/Thompson.. 08/28/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

    LAT...LON 41469368 41679291 41949184 41919107 41639078 41029088
    40429121 40109187 39769296 39529399 39399444 39409478
    39819533 40069540 40809473 41469368



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