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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1381

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, August 28, 2018 20:43:28
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 282043
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 282042
    INZ000-ILZ000-282215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1381
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0342 PM CDT Tue Aug 28 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of northern Illinois

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 282042Z - 282215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts will be possible into this
    evening. Convective trends are being monitored for possible watch
    issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Previously driven by elevated convergence/warm
    advection over southeast Iowa, storms have organized into a modest
    north-south oriented line over north-central Illinois this
    afternoon. Ahead of this line, surface temperatures have risen into
    the low 90s, yielding around 2500-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE. A recent 20Z
    ILX sounding sampled a well-mixed boundary layer, favorable for
    occasional damaging gusts in stronger convection. Additionally, KDVN
    data suggest a weak MCV near Bureau and Lee Counties in Illinois,
    and this may serve to further organize convection. Nonetheless,
    radar trends have also shown a tendency for outflow to remain
    displaced ahead of stronger convection, likely limiting the damaging
    wind threat, as new updrafts entrain dry air around 700mb (observed
    in the ILX sounding). In turn, the severe potential remains
    uncertain, but a watch could be possible if trends warrant.

    ..Picca/Dial.. 08/28/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...

    LAT...LON 40839023 41648961 41748959 41988929 42128870 42138801
    41988761 41528751 41008767 40708814 40668861 40698964
    40839023



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