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ACUS11 KWNS 282025
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282024
MIZ000-WIZ000-282200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1380
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0324 PM CDT Tue Aug 28 2018

Areas affected...Portions of Wisconsin...Lake Michigan...and western
Lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 356...

Valid 282024Z - 282200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 356
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms, with a primary threat of damaging
winds, will continue east across Wisconsin this afternoon. The
strongest of these storms should cross Lake Michigan around 5-7pm
CDT/6-8pm EDT, likely necessitating downstream watch issuance into
Lower Michigan this evening.

DISCUSSION...Storms have gradually intensified across central
Wisconsin this afternoon. The greatest threat for damaging winds is
focused with a notable line-embedded supercell (characterized by a
mature low/mid-level mesocyclone) moving east across Marquette Co as
of 20Z (3pm CDT). Ahead of the broader linear/cluster system,
warm/moist conditions remain favorable for sustenance of severe
cells and persistence of the damaging wind threat. Furthermore,
recent KMKX VWP data depict some veering of low-level winds with
height, yielding around 100-150 m2/s2 of 0-1 km storm-relative
helicity across eastern Wisconsin. Combined with the ongoing
mesocyclone, a localized threat of a tornado or two should persist.

Through early evening, these cells will track eastward across Lake
Michigan. An organized cold pool should be sufficient to maintain
some damaging wind threat into far western Lower Michigan by
early/mid evening, likely necessitating downstream watch issuance.

..Picca.. 08/28/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...GRB...MKX...ARX...

LAT...LON 42738764 42748829 42838950 43318998 43789013 44258935
44568812 44588789 44688560 44348484 43348496 42838613
42738764



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