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ACUS11 KWNS 281714
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281714
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-281915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1379
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 PM CDT Tue Aug 28 2018

Areas affected...Portions of central Iowa into central/eastern
Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 281714Z - 281915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to increase in
coverage/intensity through mid afternoon. While the need for a watch
is uncertain through 1-2pm CDT, the probability of watch issuance
will likely increase by mid-afternoon, generally from northeast Iowa
into Wisconsin.

DISCUSSION...Associated with an upstream impulse over
Kansas/Nebraska, southwesterly 850-700mb flow is aiding renewed
convective development over central/western Iowa at mid-day.
Although these cells are probably rooted above the surface,
increasing southwesterly flow aloft (evidenced in recent KDMX VWP
data) and steep mid-level lapse rates should offer at least a
marginal hail threat over the next 1-2 hours. Additionally,
sufficient downdraft momentum in the heaviest cores may yield
isolated damaging gusts. Still, the potential for more organized
severe weather (and any related need for a watch) remains unclear
here.

Although also uncertain due to earlier/ongoing convection, a greater
threat should materialize by mid afternoon closer to a cold front
stretching from northern Iowa northeastward into Wisconsin. Across
this region, pockets of diurnal heating are eroding surface-based
convective inhibition. Combined with increasing forcing for ascent
later today, cells should increase in coverage along/ahead of the
effective cold front over the upper Mississippi Valley. MLCAPE
upwards of 3000 J/kg and ample unidirectional deep-layer shear
(generally parallel to the front) should foster quick upscale growth
into clusters/bowing segments that eventually track east/northeast
into Wisconsin. Severe wind gusts and pockets of large hail would be
the main threats with these cells, although favorable low-level
speed shear could yield a line-embedded tornado. If this threat
materializes as forecast, it would likely require watch issuance,
but that may not be needed for 2-3 hours.

..Picca/Dial.. 08/28/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON 41929449 43689127 44648961 44548837 44308786 43748791
42858878 42209028 41849149 41329358 41369451 41719463
41929449



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