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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0300

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, May 01, 2018 00:40:28
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    ACUS11 KWNS 010040
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 010039
    KSZ000-010245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0300
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0739 PM CDT Mon Apr 30 2018

    Areas affected...portions of western KS.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 010039Z - 010245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms may affect parts of the
    discussion area for another 2-3 hours, with hail and damaging wind
    possible. The threat currently appears too isolated and short-lived
    to warrant a watch.

    DISCUSSION...Surface mesoanalysis showed a dryline located from a
    cold-frontal intersection north of MCK generally southward across
    the GCK area to the western parts of Beaver County OK into watch 57.
    Westward retreat of that boundary has begun, and should continue
    through the remainder of the evening. While lift along the dryline
    should decrease in step with loss of boundary-layer mixing, one or
    two additional thunderstorms may develop as a low-level convergence
    line to its west (evident in DDC reflectivity animations) merges
    with the dryline. Meanwhile, the dryline is backing into the
    existing cell that formed to its west over Finney County,
    introducing moist-sector inflow air to its environment. The 00Z DDC
    sounding, which appears reasonably representative of the pre-sunset
    warm sector, showed around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE amidst 30-35 kt
    effective-shear magnitude. As such, a temporary increase in
    convective organization may occur before nocturnal/diabatic cooling
    contributes to CINH too strong to maintain surface-based convection.
    Just 2-3 deg C near-surface cooling of that sounding greatly
    strengthens capping, though internal storm dynamics and moisture
    transport can help to maintain convection slightly longer than
    parcel theory alone would suggest.

    ..Edwards/Broyles.. 05/01/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...

    LAT...LON 37059977 37090079 37890088 38920063 38960014 38819947
    37879956 37059977



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, April 11, 2019 03:09:01
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1554952144-1972-7791
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    ACUS11 KWNS 110308
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 110308
    IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-110515-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0300
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1008 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2019

    Areas affected...north-central Kansas into southeast Nebraska and
    southwest Iowa

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 47...

    Valid 110308Z - 110515Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 47
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A hail threat will likely persist through the evening from
    northern Kansas into southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

    DISCUSSION...Significant large-scale lift persists across the region
    with a deep low moving into northeast KS. While boundary layer
    moisture has been marginal for severe weather, the presence of steep
    lapse rates and favorable lift has led to scattered severe storms
    producing hail up to Golf-Ball size. Extremely strong shear profiles
    exist across the warm sector and north of the stationary/warm front,
    but much of this SRH has been rendered in-effective.

    Continued warm advection around the cyclone will support elevated
    hail through the evening. The prospect for surface based storms
    appears low at this time.

    ..Jewell.. 04/11/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

    LAT...LON 39449663 38919743 38849788 38979856 39139917 39399963
    39859984 40319970 40779935 41469846 41749771 41759658
    41539539 40999487 40509487 40139496 39759527 39649578
    39449663



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