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ACUS11 KWNS 280812
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280812
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-281045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1377
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 AM CDT Tue Aug 28 2018

Areas affected...Parts of southeastern South Dakota...northeastern Nebraska...northwestern Iowa...southern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 280812Z - 281045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Occasional storm intensification capable of producing
severe hail may continue into daybreak near/west and southwest
through east of Sioux Falls SD. A watch is not anticipated, but
trends will continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...The next in a series of short wave perturbations
emerging from the Northwest is now progressing across Wyoming, and
associated downstream lower/mid tropospheric warm advection is
supporting ongoing increase in thunderstorm activity across the mid
Missouri Valley. Activity appears focused roughly along a thermal
gradient around the 700 mb level, on the northern periphery of a
plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Great Basin.

Storms are elevated above a cold front, with the surface-based
stable layer likely to deepen further with the front forecast to
continue surging southward across the mid Missouri Valley and
central Plains through daybreak and beyond. While the front
advances southward, forcing for convective development will continue
to develop northeastward along the mid-level front into the 12-14Z
time frame.

With negligible risk for convection becoming rooted in a moist
unstable boundary layer, severe weather potential appears limited.
However, given the presence of strong shear and CAPE up to around
1500 J/kg in the convective layer, periodic stronger storm
development accompanied by a risk for severe hail may persist
several more hours, before the quality of elevated moisture return
begins to wane resulting in weakening destabilization.

..Kerr/Edwards.. 08/28/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF...

LAT...LON 42869914 43589715 44249437 43959357 42799536 41999895
42869914



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