This is a multi-part message in MIME format...
------------=_1525133645-23415-3153
Content-Type: text/plain
ACUS11 KWNS 010013
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010013
OKZ000-TXZ000-010215-
Mesoscale Discussion 0299
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0713 PM CDT Mon Apr 30 2018
Areas affected...Portions of the Pecos Valley region of west TX
through the South Plains...TX/OK Panhandles...and western OK.
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 57...
Valid 010013Z - 010215Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 57
continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for isolated severe thunderstorms, offering
sporadic severe hail/gusts, will continue for a few more hours.
Most of the watch should be continued in the meantime, though a few
fringe counties may be cleared as convective trends (or lack
thereof) warrant. At this time, the severe threat east of the watch
appears too isolated and conditional to warrant additional
watch(es).
DISCUSSION...At 2345Z, surface analysis (using conventional
stations, West Texas Mesonet and satellite imagery) placed the
dryline from just east of GCK across western Beaver County OK,
through TX counties Roberts, Swisher, Gaines, and extreme eastern Reeves/western Pecos. As part of a multi-day "sloshing dryline"
event, the boundary is forecast to retreat northwestward this
evening with a combination of loss of heating/mixing and moist
advection. As it does so, the dryline and immediately adjacent warm
sector will experience weakening low-level UVV with the progression
of diabatic surface cooling. This should lessen the risk for
additional surface-based development after about 01Z.
However, in the meantime, a few more strong-severe thunderstorms may
form, either 1) near the dryline, or 2) in a zone of low-level lift
and weak MLCINH to its east, from which convection arose that was
located from Motley County into the southeastern Panhandle.
Modified RAOBs and forecast soundings for the next 2-3 hours suggest
1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE in a narrow corridor between the dryline and
the eastern counties of the watch, diminishing markedly and with
substantially stronger CINH eastward out of the watch. Farther
south, an isolated thunderstorm that produced a marginally severe
hail report near FST has assumed more supercellular characteristics
since, with rightward deviance and sporadic low/middle level
cyclonic shear. This activity may maintain a hail/gust risk as it
approaches the Pecos River and Crockett County.
..Edwards.. 05/01/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
LAT...LON 30620166 30690318 33200285 36950047 36269932 34589952
31880113 30620166
------------=_1525133645-23415-3153
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT
= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at
cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1525133645-23415-3153--
--- SBBSecho 3.03-Linux
* Origin: CCO BBS - capitolcityonline.net:26 (1:2320/105)