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ACUS11 KWNS 302243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302243
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-010045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0298
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0543 PM CDT Mon Apr 30 2018

Areas affected...Northeast SD...Western MN...Far Southeast MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 302243Z - 010045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is possible by 23-00Z, with some
threat for isolated severe hail and wind. At this time, the coverage
and magnitude of the threat appears too low for watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...At 2230Z, a nearly stationary cold front is draped from north-central SD into southeast ND and western MN, with a secondary
frontal surge noted across northwest MN into central ND. Filtered
sunshine has allowed temps to rise into mid-upper 70s F, and
relatively steep lapse rates are supporting MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg,
despite the lack of richer low-level moisture across the region.
Continued convergence along the nearly stationary front and slight
mid-level cooling associated with an approaching vort max will allow
for erosion of convective inhibition over the next 1-3 hours,
resulting in the potential for at least widely scattered
thunderstorm development. Effective shear of 30-40 kt will support
some organized storm structures, and isolated instances of severe
hail will be possible with the strongest updrafts. Steep low-level
lapse rates will also support the potential for isolated severe wind
gusts.

At this time, the severe threat is expected to remain relatively
isolated, and the threat should begin to diminish after 01-02Z with
the onset of diurnal cooling/stabilization. With these factors in
mind, watch issuance is currently considered unlikely.

..Dean/Broyles.. 04/30/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 45049901 45479886 47109693 47269632 47359540 47139482
46619505 45579579 44699633 44729737 44739810 44739853
45049901



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ACUS11 KWNS 091757
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091756
FLZ000-092000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0298
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2019

Areas affected...Atlantic coast of central Florida Peninsula into
northeast Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 091756Z - 092000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong to severe storm development
appears increasingly possible through 3-5 PM EDT. This may include
an isolated supercell or two, with at least some risk for severe
hail, localized damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado.

DISCUSSION...Daytime heating of a moist boundary layer, including
surface dew points around 70F, appears to be contributing to
moderately large CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg across much of the central
Florida Peninsula into northeast Florida. This is occurring beneath
moderately strong (40+ kt at 500 mb) and at least broadly difluent
mid/upper flow, ahead of an approaching short wave trough,
contributing to an environment potentially conducive to organized
severe storm development.

An increase in deepening convective development is now underway
across interior portions of the Peninsula into northern Florida, in
response to the boundary layer destabilization. However, low-level convergence, particularly across western into interior portions of
the Peninsula remains generally weak.

Through 19-21Z, it does appear that further insolation and boundary
layer destabilization, coupled with at least pockets of increasing
low-level convergence, particularly where enhanced by the Atlantic
coast sea breeze, probably will support the initiation of widely
scattered discrete storm development. This could include an
isolated supercell or two, accompanied by at least some risk for
severe hail, localized damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief
tornado.

..Kerr/Hart.. 04/09/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...JAX...

LAT...LON 30658146 30078112 29498095 29158071 28338048 27748026
27308043 27328096 28078127 28708139 29518200 29898214
30318185 30658146



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