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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1371

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, August 27, 2018 20:47:24
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 272047
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 272046
    NEZ000-SDZ000-272245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1371
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0346 PM CDT Mon Aug 27 2018

    Areas affected...Western/south-central South Dakota...north-central
    Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 272046Z - 272245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A few isolated supercells will be possible from the Black
    Hills into central Nebraska. Large hail will be the primary threat.
    Storm coverage is expected to remain isolated. A WW is not
    anticipated, but trends in coverage will continue to be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...As mid-level ascent continues to overspread the area, a
    few isolated supercell thunderstorms may develop along and near a
    stationary boundary from the Black Hills southeastward into central
    Nebraska. 18Z UNR sounding shows very elongated hodograph with steep
    mid-level lapse rates favorable for large hail. While the 18Z UNR
    sounding did show some capping left to overcome, modifying the
    sounding for recent surface observations in the vicinity suggests
    that some areas may be close to removing MLCIN. The biggest
    uncertainty will be storm coverage. The current thinking is that
    coverage will remain isolated to a few areas where the cap can be
    overcome. Given these concerns, a WW is not currently anticipated.
    However, should storm coverage increase, a WW will be possible.

    ..Wendt/Dial.. 08/27/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...

    LAT...LON 44720365 44740218 44350106 42919981 41729935 41199962
    41280049 41910122 43160246 43640358 44250377 44720365



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