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ACUS11 KWNS 271925
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271924
WIZ000-MIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-272100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1370
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Mon Aug 27 2018

Areas affected...northern Iowa...southeastern and east-central
Minnesota...and western Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 271924Z - 272100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Storms continue to gradually increase, in conjunction with
associated severe risk. WW issuance is expected within the next
hour or so.

DISCUSSION...Continued progression of a mid-level short-wave trough
across South Dakota/Nebraska is resulting in a steady increase in
ascent -- focused near the surface front extending from the western
shore of Lake Superior southwest into south central Nebraska.
Diurnal heating of the moist pre-frontal boundary layer has resulted
in 2500 to 3000 j/Kg mixed-layer CAPE, as indicated by objective
analyses, which is supporting a gradual increase in convection --
mainly near and just to the cool side of the boundary. This
increase includes a supercell near the immediate frontal zone now
crossing southern Mille Lacs county, where risk for mainly hail is
evident.

Recent MPX special RAOB data shows that the warm-sector boundary
layer remains capped, as the suppressed pre-frontal cu field -- per
the latest visible satellite loop -- would imply. However, current expectations are for storms to gradually increase near the front --
over the central Minnesota to northern Iowa vicinity -- in the next
couple of hours. With the uncontaminated OAX (Omaha, NE) VWP
showing moderately strong southwest above-surface flow suggestive of
potential for both organized and fast-moving bands of storms, as
well as supercells, increasing risks for damaging winds and hail --
along with a possible tornado or two depending upon storm
mode/evolution -- suggest that WW will be required in the next 1-2
hours.

..Goss/Dial.. 08/27/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON 42089443 42659542 43599569 44529525 45259458 46859159
46318997 45059010 43169068 42389319 42089443



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