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ACUS11 KWNS 271649
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271649
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-271845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1369
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 AM CDT Mon Aug 27 2018

Areas affected...northeast Nebraska...southeast South
Dakota...northwest Iowa...and into southern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 271649Z - 271845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms have increased a bit from the northeast Nebraska
vicinity northeast into southwest Minnesota, with risk for marginal
hail possible. The need for WW issuance, however, still appears to
be a couple of hours off.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis depicts a surface front
extending from northeast Minnesota southwest across southeast South
Dakota, to a weak frontal wave analyzed in northeast Nebraska.
Water vapor imagery shows ascent -- associated with a short-wave
trough exiting northeast Colorado -- spreading into eastern South Dakota/eastern Nebraska, which has supported some new cell
development as well as updraft strengthening within the ongoing band
of convection from eastern Nebraska into southwest Minnesota. The
storms appear to be limited to the cool side of the boundary at this
time, and thus hail likely would be the primary severe risk with a
stronger updraft or two, in the short term.

Eventually, the moist/destabilizing airmass near and ahead of the
surface front in conjunction with increasing ascent will allow
surface-based convection to take root, possibly evolving out of the
existing northeast Nebraska convection. With the deep-layer wind
field expected to increase with time in conjunction with afternoon destabilization, the evolution toward surface-based storms should
eventually pose an increasing wind/hail risk, that will likely
require WW issuance. At this point, that evolution appears to be a
couple of hours in the future, but will continue to monitor
short-term trends with respect to ongoing convection, for any
possibility that WW issuance may become needed sooner rather than
later.

..Goss/Dial.. 08/27/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...

LAT...LON 41609677 41829744 43109715 43499763 43949763 45449513
45749378 45749300 45029300 42679427 42089548 41609677



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