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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1366

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, August 27, 2018 02:33:38
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 270233
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 270232
    MIZ000-270400-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1366
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0932 PM CDT Sun Aug 26 2018

    Areas affected...Central Michigan

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 270232Z - 270400Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A marginal severe weather threat remains as storms move
    east across Michigan. The primary threat will be damaging winds.

    DISCUSSION...A line of storms in west central Michigan has produced
    measure wind gusts up to 53 mph over the past hour. These marginally
    severe wind gusts may continue as the storms continue to move east
    across the state. RAP forecast soundings indicate only weak
    inhibition ahead of these storms with MLCAPE between 2000 and 3000
    J/kg. Surface to 3 km shear around 25 knots per GRR VWP should be
    sufficient to support at least some upright convection on the
    leading edge of the cold pool for a few more hours. Slightly backed
    surface winds have enhanced low level helicity with around 175 m2/s2
    of 0-1 km SRH per GRR VWP. However, 0 to 3 km shear is a bit too
    weak to support more than an isolated threat of QLCS tornadoes.
    Therefore, expect the primary threat to be gusty winds of 45 to 55
    mph continuing for the next few hours.

    ..Bentley/Thompson.. 08/27/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

    LAT...LON 43758590 43848468 43838354 43398298 42998307 42728355
    42478482 42588591 42828656 43198660 43758590



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