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ACUS11 KWNS 262316
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262315
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-270145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1365
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0615 PM CDT Sun Aug 26 2018

Areas affected...Central and northeast South Dakota...eastern North Dakota...and northwest Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 262315Z - 270145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms coverage will increase through evening, with large
hail and damaging wind possible from South Dakota into Minnesota. A
tornado cannot be ruled out across northeast South Dakota, southeast
north Dakota and west-central Minnesota near the warm front.

DISCUSSION...A shortwave trough and developing cold front will
continue to move eastward across the Dakotas and into northwest MN
by late evening. Currently, the cold front is pushing into central
SD, with a warm front from the SD/ND border eastward into central
MN. South of this front, a moderately unstable air mass exits, which
remains capped over most of the area. Recently, storms have begun to
develop near the cold front where lift is strongest across central
SD. These cluster of storms may continue to grow upscale with a hail
and wind threat as it moves east/northeast toward the warm front.

Farther north, the air mass north of the warm front is relatively
cool and capped, but strengthening warm advection with a 30-40 kt
low-level jet as well as lift with the upper trough will result in
development from eastern ND into MN this evening. Large hail and
damaging winds will be possible, with mixed storm mode. A
conditional tornado threat exists for any cellular activity near the
warm front.

..Jewell/Thompson.. 08/26/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON 45149715 44709816 44419888 44229955 44170026 44110099
44450132 44780129 45110110 45790057 46249941 46459875
46889818 47469753 47999706 48379659 48589586 48509512
48319469 48029449 47489441 46509503 45779611 45409665
45149715



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