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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1364

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, August 26, 2018 22:15:37
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 262215
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 262214
    MNZ000-WIZ000-270015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1364
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0514 PM CDT Sun Aug 26 2018

    Areas affected...North Central Minnesota to the Southwest Tip of
    Lake Superior

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 262214Z - 270015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few severe storms are possible through this evening. The
    primary threat from these storms will be large hail.

    DISCUSSION...A severe storm dropped golf ball sized hail in
    McGregor, Minnesota at 2147Z. Recent MRMS MESH suggests this storm
    may be producing hail in excess of 2 inches now. This storm may
    persist for a bit longer before outrunning the better elevated
    instability as it moves northward. Additional storms may form on the southwestern edge of the ongoing convective activity which may pose
    an additional severe risk. MUCAPE in this area is around 2000 to
    3000 J/kg with effective shear around 50 knots per the DLH VWP. A
    watch is not expected due to the limited coverage of the stronger
    storms, but a watch could be needed if the coverage of stronger
    storms is greater than currently anticipated. Given the
    supercellular nature of the storms and mid-level lapse rates around
    7.5 to 8 C/km, large hail is the primary threat. The elevated nature
    of the storms will limit the threat of damaging winds.

    ..Bentley.. 08/26/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...

    LAT...LON 47039165 47259238 47379343 47239430 46849460 46489455
    46299412 46319304 46449228 46699178 47039165



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