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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1363

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, August 26, 2018 20:53:09
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    ACUS11 KWNS 262053
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 262052
    NDZ000-MTZ000-262245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1363
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0352 PM CDT Sun Aug 26 2018

    Areas affected...Far northeastern Montana...northwestern North
    Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 262052Z - 262245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A few elevated supercells may develop this evening. The
    primary threat with this activity will be large hail. Uncertainty
    with regard to overall storm coverage reduces confidence in WW
    issuance, but one may be needed should convective trends warrant.

    DISCUSSION...While boundary destabilization has been minimal across
    the discussion area, the approach of mid-level ascent now across
    southeastern Montana may lead to an uptick in storm
    coverage/intensity across northwest North Dakota. Latest guidance
    suggests low-level moistening will continue into early this evening.
    The 18Z BIS sounding, with the additional low-level moistening,
    supports elevated convection with MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg possible.
    KMBX VAD profiles show 60+ kts of 0-6 km shear making supercell
    storms possible. Large hail will be the primary threat with the
    strongest, most-organized storms. Storm coverage is the biggest
    uncertainty. A WW may be needed should trends in coverage/intensity
    become more clear.

    ..Wendt/Thompson.. 08/26/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...

    LAT...LON 48750450 48950388 48970264 48790110 48190078 47720127
    47420219 47500332 47620427 47960474 48420477 48750450



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