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ACUS11 KWNS 261657
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261656 COR
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-261845-
Mesoscale Discussion 1360
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 AM CDT Sun Aug 26 2018
Areas affected...Southeast ND...West-Central/Central MN
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 261656Z - 261845Z
CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE IN THE AREAS AFFECTED
HEADER.
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated hail and/or damaging wind gusts are possible
during the next few hours across southeast SD and
west-central/central MN. A relatively greater severe risk is
anticipated later this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery has shown a gradual increase in
updraft intensity and forward speed of the thunderstorm cluster
moving across west-central MN. This is likely due to increased
warm-air advection into the region as the mid-level flow continues
to strengthen. Some additional support may be a result of increasing
theta-e within the upstream parcels. Isolated hail and a few
damaging wind gusts are possible within the next hour or two.
Vertical shear will remain supportive of thunderstorm organization
but the general expectation is for storms to gradually weaken as
they progresses into a less favorable thermodynamic environment.
Farther west, elevated multi-cellular activity has recently
developed across southeast ND. This activity is likely also a result
of increased warm-air advection as well as enhanced lift ahead of
the approaching shortwave trough. Strong vertical shear (i.e. 0-6 km
bulk shear over 50 kt) exists over the area and some updraft
organization is possible. Primary severe threat is isolated hail.
Marginal thermodynamic environment downstream of these storms will
likely limit the overall severe potential for the next few hours.
..Mosier/Dial.. 08/26/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 45739503 45939725 46149842 46659850 47029794 47249533
46949348 46349338 45789385 45749485 45739503
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