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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0295

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, April 30, 2018 19:36:26
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    ACUS11 KWNS 301936
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301936
    NEZ000-WYZ000-302030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0295
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0236 PM CDT Mon Apr 30 2018

    Areas affected...central and eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska
    Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 301936Z - 302030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated/marginally severe storms are expected across the
    discussion area through the afternoon. A WW issuance is not
    expected for this activity.

    DISCUSSION...Recent satellite/radar imagery continued to indicate a
    gradually increasing cumulus field across southeastern Wyoming, with
    a few lightning strikes noted in cells over higher elevations of
    Albany County. This activity is in an environment characterized by
    steep low to mid-level lapse rates, supporting 250-500 J/kg MUCAPE.
    Deep shear favors updraft organization, and gradually
    veering/increasingly upslope surface flow (to northeasterly in
    latest obs) in tandem with an approaching vorticity maximum over
    northeastern Colorado suggest a gradual, yet continued expansion of
    isolated thunderstorm activity across the discussion area. These
    storms should pose an isolated threat of wind gusts and perhaps hail
    - especially with any cells that can acquire updraft rotation and/or
    organize into linear segments. This threat will likely be too
    isolated for a WW issuance, although convective trends will be
    monitored throughout the afternoon.

    ..Cook/Wendt/Grams.. 04/30/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...

    LAT...LON 41860573 42310591 42900572 43050507 42960405 42650305
    41960264 41140289 41000318 41080454 41290539 41860573



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, April 08, 2019 21:24:14
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 082124
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 082123
    NCZ000-VAZ000-082300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0295
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0423 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2019

    Areas affected...eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45...

    Valid 082123Z - 082300Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Storms may produce damaging winds east of the current
    watch, and a new watch is being considered.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms continued to move rapidly
    eastward across central NC into south-central VA, aided by 40+ kt
    deep-layer mean winds. Ahead of these storms, and north of the
    sea-breeze into southeast NC, strong heating has led to steep
    low-level lapse rates, and MLCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Given
    favorable time of day and boundary layer condition downstream of the
    ongoing storms, a damaging wind threat may extend eastward,
    necessitating a watch.

    ..Jewell/Grams.. 04/08/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...

    LAT...LON 37517742 37717690 37727640 37477595 36977551 36447550
    36157579 35727680 35397757 35197836 35127890 35387916
    35917928 36537902 36967865 37517742



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