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ACUS11 KWNS 261042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261042
SDZ000-NDZ000-261315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1358
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0542 AM CDT Sun Aug 26 2018

Areas affected...Parts of northern SD and southern ND

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 261042Z - 261315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail will be possible with storms moving from
northwest South Dakota toward south-central North Dakota through 8-9
AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery and lightning data
showed a short band and cluster of storms over northwest SD, with
the lead band (in eastern Perkins and northern Ziebach Counties)
tracking to the east-northeast at 45 kt. A low-amplitude,
progressive shortwave trough, located over southeast MT/northwest SD
per water vapor imagery, will shift northeast through southern to
eastern ND by 18Z. Trends in objective analyses suggest low-level
warm advection may have initially aided in storm development with
this cluster, though warm advection around 700-mb should aid in
maintaining this convection as it tracks across the discussion area.

Storms will continue to have the potential to increase in intensity,
as they move into a corridor of stronger instability (MUCAPE
1000-1500 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates (8-8.5 C/km), and strong
effective bulk shear for midlevel rotation. Weak forcing for ascent
attendant to the low-amplitude of the trough should limit the
spatial coverage of strong to severe storms.

..Peters/Grams.. 08/26/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON 45130186 45770216 46030145 46549984 46829868 46919808
46059786 45579796 45320008 45200137 45130186



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