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ACUS11 KWNS 260746
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260746
MNZ000-NDZ000-261015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1357
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 AM CDT Sun Aug 26 2018

Areas affected...Southeast ND into Northwest and central MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 260746Z - 261015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated supercells remain possible during the overnight
to early morning across southeast North Dakota into the west-central
region of Minnesota, with large hail being the primary severe risk.
Meanwhile, a severe storm or two may occur across central Minnesota
overnight, as a cluster of storms advances east-northeast, with
isolated hail as the greatest threat. WW issuance is unlikely at
this time.

DISCUSSION...Trends in radar imagery during the last 2-3 hours
showed a couple of persistent supercells tracking east through
southeast ND, with periodic increases in intensity, as they move
into an environment that has remained moderately unstable. Forcing
for ascent attendant to a midlevel impulse/50-kt speed max advancing
from eastern ND into northern MN and low-level warm advection per south/southwesterly low-level winds should continue to support
thunderstorms overnight into the early morning.

The presence of steep midlevel lapse rates (8-8.5 C/km per 00Z ABR
sounding and objective analyses), moderate elevated instability and
strong effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt across southeast
ND/northwest MN expected to spread across central MN will support
organized storms. Given the low-amplitude/weak associated forcing
with the midlevel impulse, the overall coverage of stronger storms
should remain spatially limited. However, the stronger storms will
be capable of producing mainly an isolated severe hail threat into
the early morning.

..Peters/Grams.. 08/26/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON 45489378 45599488 46079634 46459687 46659726 46889775
47139790 47219686 47079543 46549383 46239326 45589325
45489378



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