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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1354

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, August 25, 2018 22:47:02
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 252246
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 252246
    OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-260015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1354
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0546 PM CDT Sat Aug 25 2018

    Areas affected...Southeast Indiana into far southwest Ohio and far
    northern Kentucky

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 252246Z - 260015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat continues for the next hour or
    two. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threat.

    DISCUSSION...Earlier storms have organized into one primary storm
    cluster in eastern Indiana. The area ahead of these storms has
    destabilized in the last few hours in the wake of earlier cloud
    cover. MLCAPE across this area is around 2000 J/kg with deep layer
    shear around 40 knots per IND VWP. While last several HRRR runs have
    suggested these storms should have dissipated by now, current
    mesoanalysis would suggest this storm cluster may continue for
    another hour or two before waning with the loss of daytime heating.
    Surface winds ahead of these storms are south southeasterly with 1
    km winds around 30 knots out of the southwest per IND VWP yielding
    around 150 m2/s2 of 0 to 1 km SRH. Therefore, a tornado cannot be
    ruled out with this activity. The expected limited duration of these
    severe threat precludes the need for a watch at this time.

    ..Bentley/Guyer.. 08/25/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...

    LAT...LON 39788533 39748585 39758628 39658660 39218620 38828571
    38658528 38668459 39228457 39488472 39788533



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