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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1353

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, August 25, 2018 22:16:04
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 252215
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 252215
    INZ000-ILZ000-260015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1353
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0515 PM CDT Sat Aug 25 2018

    Areas affected...North Central Illinois into far northwest Indiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 252215Z - 260015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...One or two strong to severe storms are possible this
    evening from north central Illinois into far northwest Indiana.

    DISCUSSION...Vertical growth of towering cumulus across north
    central Illinois has been stunted through most of the afternoon with
    a lack of focused forcing for ascent on the synoptic or mesoscale.
    However, the airmass remains uncapped in much of north central
    Illinois where MLCAPE is around 3500 to 4000 J/kg. A few small cells
    have formed in Stark County and Will County Illinois in the last 30
    minutes which suggests that at least a few stronger storms are
    possible this evening. Given the very unstable environment and deep
    layer shear around 30 to 35 knots, any storms which form will be
    capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. Most of the
    vertical wind shear is focused within the lowest 3 km which will
    lead to an increased chance for damaging wind gusts. Given the
    limited storm coverage, a watch is unlikely.

    ..Bentley/Guyer.. 08/25/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...

    LAT...LON 41099074 41518954 41758847 41698742 41418699 40948701
    40758772 40598864 40379031 40609063 41099074



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