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ACUS11 KWNS 260308
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260308
MNZ000-NDZ000-260445-

Mesoscale Discussion 1356
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1008 PM CDT Sat Aug 25 2018

Areas affected...Portions of southeast North Dakota and western
Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 260308Z - 260445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms will be capable of severe hail and damaging
gusts overnight. The threat should remain isolated enough to
preclude watch issuance, though.

DISCUSSION...Under the influence of a shortwave trough transiting
the region, a few strong/severe storms have developed across
southeast North Dakota late this evening. The 00Z ABR sounding
sampled steep mid-level lapse rates and considerable veering of
winds with height, suggesting mid-level updraft rotation should
support occasional severe hail in isolated cells. Additionally,
increasing warm advection should maintain these cells as they move east/southeast towards the ND/MN border through the overnight.
Although nocturnal cooling may limit damaging wind potential some,
the near-surface stable layer should remain shallow enough to allow
for a few stronger/damaging gusts as well. At present, the coverage
of the severe threat is expected to be too limited for watch
issuance, though.

..Picca/Guyer.. 08/26/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 46109850 46429955 46639997 46860000 47069964 47279902
47459803 47439680 47369575 47249509 46999482 46459484
45969503 45909511 46029721 46109850



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