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ACUS11 KWNS 240130
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240129
SDZ000-NDZ000-240300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1349
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0829 PM CDT Thu Aug 23 2018

Areas affected...Dakotas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 348...349...

Valid 240129Z - 240300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 348, 349
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat will focus across the western part of WW348.
WW349 may be canceled soon.

DISCUSSION...Convection has struggled to progress east of 99w as air
mass across the eastern Dakotas is characterized by poor low-level
lapse rates, though seasonally moist with surface dew points in the
mid-upper 60s. 00z soundings across the High Plains from LBF to BIS
exhibit near-surface based buoyancy with substantial instability
beneath cold thermal trough. For these reasons convection continues
to regenerate along the western side of WW348 where parcels are less restricted. Earlier storms that produced severe hail/wind across
south-central SD appear to be negatively influence by diurnal
cooling thus convection should primarily remain north of ww349 the
rest of this evening. Hail remains the main threat with
thunderstorms across mainly the western half of WW348.

..Darrow.. 08/24/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 43879992 44950030 45920138 46750062 46349867 45429792
43849877 43879992



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