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ACUS11 KWNS 232347
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232347
SDZ000-NEZ000-240115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1348
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 PM CDT Thu Aug 23 2018

Areas affected...portions of southern SD.

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 349...

Valid 232347Z - 240115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 349
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm watch 349 has been issued for an
increasingly organized cluster of severe thunderstorms that should
move generally eastward over the watch area, offering damaging gusts
and large hail.

DISCUSSION...A broken cluster of severe thunderstorms, which has
produced marginal hail and a couple of measured-severe gusts up to
76 mph in Haakon and Jackson counties -- is forecast to move across
the southern rim of a favorably unstable air mass across south-
central SD. Though somewhat drier than farther east, modified
forecast soundings suggest 50s F surface dew points, supporting
1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE atop a well-mixed subcloud layer, amidst about
35 kt effective-shear magnitude. This will, in turn, support
maintenance of severe gusts/hail to the surface along the projected
path of this convection to the western edge of a much moister but
also more stable air mass east of the Missouri River.

Some eastward erosion of the stronger MLCINH may occur amidst
low-level warm advection. However, the antecedent persistence of a
stratus deck and related boundary-layer cooling/stabilization
through the day will substantially restrict MLCAPE and strengthen
MLCINH with eastward extent from the river across southeastern SD.
As such, the severe-wind threat should diminish with time and
eastward extent in that area.

..Edwards.. 08/23/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON 42849816 43000123 43470123 43770123 43790123 43790123
44160105 44180037 44229966 44229965 44209833 44209833
43509811 43189806 42979808 42959808 42889811 42869812
42869812 42849815 42849816 42849816 42849816



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