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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1347

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, August 23, 2018 21:32:53
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    ACUS11 KWNS 232132
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 232132
    SDZ000-232330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1347
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0432 PM CDT Thu Aug 23 2018

    Areas affected...central South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 232132Z - 232330Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may develop this afternoon across central
    South Dakota. If they do, large hail and strong, gusty winds would
    be possible.

    DISCUSSION...Recent satellite imagery captures a bubbling cumulus
    field across central South Dakota, with several failed attempts at
    initiation evident. The meso-scale environment across the region is characterized by most-unstable CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and
    effective bulk shear around 30 knots, which is a generally favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. However, a strong cap and
    weak subsidence remains across the region in the wake of a
    lead/embedded short-wave trough moving across eastern South Dakota.
    Thus, a highly conditional severe threat exists. Should thunderstorm
    initiation and maturation occur, severe winds and large hail would
    be possible -- and a tornado or two could not be ruled out. If
    thunderstorm initiation does appear imminent, a severe watch could
    become needed.

    A more likely scenario is that thunderstorms will develop farther north/northeast later this evening as the low-level jet increases,
    and ascent from an approaching mid-level jet overspreads the area.

    ..Marsh/Edwards.. 08/23/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...

    LAT...LON 43299995 44610028 45780058 45749918 44739877 43509882
    43299995



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