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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1346

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, August 23, 2018 20:33:22
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 232033
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 232032
    SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-232230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1346
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0332 PM CDT Thu Aug 23 2018

    Areas affected...Western South Dakota...far northeast Wyoming...and
    extreme southeast Montana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 232032Z - 232230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated severe thunderstorm wind gust or large hail is
    possible with afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Current
    expectations are that thunderstorms should remain isolated enough to
    preclude the need for a watch.

    DISCUSSION...Seasonably cold midlevel temperatures will continue to
    overspread portions of the Dakotas through the rest of the day.
    These cooling midlevel temperatures combined with diurnal heating
    and surface dewpoints in the 40s F will support a few thunderstorms
    this afternoon into the evening. Despite mixed-layer CAPE generally
    less than 1000 J/kg, the cool temperatures aloft and steep low-level
    lapse rates support most-unstable CAPE values approaching 2000 J/kg
    and could support an isolated severe wind or hail threat with the
    strongest thunderstorm cores. Coverage is anticipated to be isolated
    enough to preclude the need for a severe thunderstorm watch,
    however, if trends suggest greater coverage than expected, a severe thunderstorm watch could eventually be needed.

    ..Marsh.. 08/23/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...

    LAT...LON 43150470 45000526 45490277 44280160 43300191 43150470



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