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ACUS11 KWNS 222049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222049
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-222245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1342
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Wed Aug 22 2018

Areas affected...Southeastern Colorado...southwestern
Kansas...Oklahoma Panhandle...northern Texas Panhandle...far
northeastern New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 222049Z - 222245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong/severe storms will be possible this afternoon
and evening. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be
possible with the strongest storms. Spatial extent of the threat is
limited enough that a WW is not currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Recent KPUX radar imagery shows storm development
occurring along the Front Range of southeastern Colorado. Farther
southeast, visible satellite imagery has shown a few attempts at
initiation along the Raton Mesa as well as a continued pocket of
agitated cumulus clouds in the northern Texas Panhandle. With at
least modest, upslope flow in southeast Colorado and enhanced
surface convergence along a surface trough/differential heating
boundary, a cluster or two of storms may develop. With MLCAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg and backed surface wind near the boundary
contributing to effective deep-layer shear of 25-35 kts, isolated
instances of severe hail and severe wind gusts will be possible with
this activity. A strengthening low-level jet early this evening will
likely sustain some of these storm clusters beyond sunset. Overall
coverage of storms is not expected to be substantial. A WW is not
anticipated.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 08/22/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON 39180450 38600312 38220237 37940134 37790062 37529983
37059953 36379993 35980019 35830055 35750097 36030190
36280299 36520351 36790380 37250431 37750452 38140478
38780483 39180450



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