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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1340

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, August 22, 2018 12:32:48
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    ACUS11 KWNS 221232
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 221232
    WYZ000-IDZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-221430-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1340
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0732 AM CDT Wed Aug 22 2018

    Areas affected...Northern UT...Southeast ID...Southwest WY

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 221232Z - 221430Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail may accompany an elevated supercell
    or two that track east through midday.

    DISCUSSION...Elevated convection has slowly intensified since 1130Z
    near the NV/ID/UT border area, likely owing to a combination of
    strengthening warm advection and DCVA just ahead of a slowly
    ejecting shortwave trough near the ID/OR border. Recent HRRR runs
    and some 00Z HREF members simulate this activity well and indicate
    it will persist through at least midday. 12Z SLC/LKN soundings along
    with RAP forecast soundings suggest this convection is rooted
    between 700-600 mb atop a nocturnal boundary layer. Despite meager
    buoyancy (MUCAPE around 500 J/kg), very steep mid-level lapse rates
    of 8-9 C/km amid strong mid/upper-level shear (yielding effective
    values around 40 kt) will support a risk for an elevated supercell
    or two that could produce 1-1.5 inch hail.

    ..Grams/Broyles.. 08/22/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH...LKN...

    LAT...LON 41261424 41991359 42521301 43311160 43321096 43271064
    42751046 41811051 41621060 41311112 41081210 40951298
    40921375 41031426 41261424



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