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ACUS11 KWNS 212058
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212057
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-212300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1337
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 PM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018

Areas affected...Southeastern Colorado...northeast New
Mexico...northwestern Texas Panhandle...western Oklahoma Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 212057Z - 212300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms will move off of the higher terrain this
afternoon. Initial threat will be isolated hail as activity will be
marginally supercellular. With time, storms should congeal and pose
more of a severe wind gust threat. A WW is not anticipated, but
trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms have initiated along the Sangre de
Cristo mountains in Colorado and New Mexico. With time, this
activity should move off of the higher terrain into an unstable
environment characterized by 1000 J/kg MLCAPE in the northern
discussion area to 2500 J/kg to the south. Modest upslope flow has
contributed to 25-30 kts of effective bulk shear. At least initial
development will be marginally supercellular with at least an
isolated hail threat, given mid-level lapse rates of 7.5-8 C/km.
Storms are then expected to congeal/cluster where a wind threat will
become the primary concern. A tornado cannot completely be ruled out
should a storm interact with a surface boundary near the CO/OK/NM
border. A WW is not anticipated, but convective trends in
organization/coverage of storms will be monitored.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 08/21/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 37090493 37370424 37490285 37350216 37040189 36610178
36050188 35810263 35860372 36030446 36250498 37090493



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