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ACUS11 KWNS 211953
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211953
NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-212200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1335
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018

Areas affected...Western North Carolina...northwestern South Carolina...northeastern Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 211953Z - 212200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms will be possible this
afternoon with an attendant risk of damaging wind gusts. A WW is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Ascent associated with a passing mid-level trough has
lead to an increase in showers/thunderstorm activity over the last
hour. With continued heating ahead of this activity, MLCAPE values
should reach 1500-2000 J/kg this afternoon. Effective deep-layer
shear of 25-30 kts will support at least marginal updraft
organization. Given the very moist profiles on RAP forecast
soundings, the primary threat with this activity should be isolated
wet microbursts. Given the expected limited spatial extent of the
threat, a WW is not anticipated.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 08/21/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

LAT...LON 36438158 36478057 36148019 35648005 35338056 34838117
34488188 34018271 33638362 33908441 34298418 34748380
36438158



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