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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1334

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, August 21, 2018 18:17:13
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 211817
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 211816
    PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-212015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1334
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0116 PM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018

    Areas affected...Parts of western and central PA...WV...and the
    western MD Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 211816Z - 212015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch is being considered for parts
    of western and central Pennsylvania into parts of West Virginia and
    the western Maryland Panhandle. Strong wind gusts will be the
    primary severe weather threat, though a tornado or two is possible.

    DISCUSSION...Surface streamline analysis indicated an area of
    confluence from eastern WV into western PA early this afternoon,
    which appears to be coincident to the leading edge of greater
    forcing for ascent spreading east across the discussion area ahead
    of the approaching upper trough. Breaks in cloudiness this
    afternoon have allowed for some surface heating within a moist
    environment contributing to moderate destabilization (MLCAPE of at
    least 1000 J/kg). 30-40 kt of southwesterly midlevel winds will
    maintain sufficient effective bulk shear for line segments/bowing
    structures, with damaging winds the primary severe hazard. However,
    a tornado threat does exist, especially in locations where surface
    and low-level winds have a southerly trajectory, enhancing low-level shear/rotation.

    ..Peters/Guyer.. 08/21/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

    LAT...LON 38288140 39778042 40797998 41337963 41437897 41397834
    40977810 39787820 38697910 37718022 37518103 37638133
    38288140



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