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ACUS11 KWNS 211721
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211720
COZ000-UTZ000-211915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1333
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018

Areas affected...South-central/east-central Utah...West-central
Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 211720Z - 211915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storm coverage will increase as surface heating erodes
convective inhibition over the next few hours. Strong deep-layer
shear will support organized storms with a primary hazard of severe
wind gusts. A WW is not anticipated, but trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...A strong, positively-tilted trough over the northern
Great Basin has lead to an enhanced belt of mid- and upper-level
flow across parts of Utah and Colorado. A few elevated storms have
been ongoing across central Utah over the last hour or two with
further development along the higher terrain of central Utah
becoming apparent on visible satellite imagery. While RAP analysis
indicates MLCIN still in place, ongoing strong heating will erode
the cap and yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 1500 to near 2000 J/kg.
Given the enhanced flow aloft, effective deep-layer shear values of
35-45 kts will support organized storms. 12Z SLC and GJT soundings
show relatively dry boundary layers and, with steep low-level lapse
rates, severe wind gusts will be the primary concern with this
activity. A WW is not currently anticipated; however, trends in
storm coverage/intensity will be monitored.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 08/21/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...

LAT...LON 38451260 38991238 39331182 39511006 39620891 39190838
38590844 37870962 37631083 37561210 37531269 38011288
38181280 38451260



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