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ACUS11 KWNS 211646
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211645
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-211915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1332
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 AM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018

Areas affected...WV into southwest PA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 211645Z - 211915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong wind gusts will be possible during the
early afternoon across much of West Virginia into southwest
Pennsylvania. Given a marginal severe wind threat at this time, a severe-thunderstorm watch is not expected, though trends will be
monitored for any increase in storm coverage and intensity later
this afternoon that would warrant greater need for a watch.

DISCUSSION...Trends in lightning data and satellite/radar imagery
showed short line of storms extending from extreme southeast OH
(Monroe County) into WV (Wirt County), with additional convection
developing eastward across WV and southwestward into eastern KY.
Visible imagery indicated skies had become mostly cloudy again
across much of the discussion area, after a break this morning that
resulted in pockets of stronger diabatic heating and steepening
low-level lapse rates per surface observations and objective
analyses, respectively. Height falls attendant to a trough
advancing east through the Ohio Valley and 30-40 kt southwesterly
midlevel winds will continue to support bands of storms forming
across WV into southwest PA through the early afternoon. Despite a
high moisture content air mass, limited surface heating is expected
to inhibit stronger destabilization in the short term and is a
primary factor precluding the need for watch issuance at this time.

..Peters/Guyer.. 08/21/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...JKL...

LAT...LON 38288260 38708143 39438093 39988052 40338029 40457983
40407944 40187925 39507935 38867962 37998014 37548075
37288122 37288165 37678230 38288260



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