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ACUS11 KWNS 202258
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202257
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-210000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1331
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0557 PM CDT Mon Aug 20 2018

Areas affected...far northeast LA and southeast AR...north-central
and northern MS...southern part of western TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 345...

Valid 202257Z - 210000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated 50-60 mph gusts, capable of wind damage, are
possible with any supercell or stronger multicell early this
evening. Although a severe thunderstorm watch will probably not be
needed across north-central MS to the south of the existing watches,
this area will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Radar shows a broken cluster of a mixed mode of
supercells and multicells across the lower MS Valley early this
evening. This activity has developed on the southern periphery of
stronger forcing for ascent that is largely displaced to the north
of the middle MS Valley. An extremely moist axis extends
north-northeastward over the Delta region with upper 70s dewpoints
yielding lowest 100mb mean mixing ratios of 19 g/kg. Despite the
relatively weak lapse rates per forecast soundings, around 3000 J/kg
of MLCAPE exists from northeast LA into northern MS. An outflow
boundary from earlier-day convection over southeast MS and
west-central AL is slowly progressing northwestward across the
greater Jackson-Columbus corridor. The focus for severe
thunderstorm potential will be north and west of this boundary
during the evening as storms gradually move east. Wet microbursts
appear to be the primary threat with the stronger storms. Tornado
potential will likely be relatively limited across northern MS given
a veer-back-veer signature evident on the area VADs.

..Smith/Edwards.. 08/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 32779007 32349146 32689257 34359064 35299008 35228837
34448798 33428872 32779007



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