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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1330

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, August 20, 2018 22:39:08
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 202239
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 202238
    MTZ000-IDZ000-210045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1330
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0538 PM CDT Mon Aug 20 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of southern/central ID and far
    southwestern MT

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 202238Z - 210045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A very isolated gusty wind and marginally severe hail risk
    should continue through the evening. Watch issuance is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms have developed this afternoon
    across the Bitterroot Mountains of ID/MT. 22Z surface observations
    show a cold front located across this region, and the 12Z sounding
    from BOI showed 700-500 mb lapse rates around 8.4 C/km. These steep
    mid-level lapse rates should somewhat compensate for limited
    low-level moisture, with MLCAPE of 250-500 J/kg noted on 22Z RAP
    mesoanalysis generally along and south of the front. Enhanced
    southwesterly mid-level winds attendant to a positively tilted
    mid/upper-level trough over the northern Rockies are contributing to
    40-50 kt of effective bulk shear. Some potential for updraft
    organization will continue for the next few hours while the airmass
    remains weakly unstable. Very isolated instances of strong/gusty
    downdraft winds will be possible with a deeply mixed boundary layer
    and related steep low-level lapse rates south of the front.
    Marginally severe hail may also occur with the strongest cores. The
    overall severe threat will very likely remain too sparse/marginal to
    justify a watch.

    ..Gleason/Edwards.. 08/20/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...

    LAT...LON 44541138 44271236 43821439 43701512 43851524 44461485
    45051418 45261270 45351150 45311110 44781110 44541138



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