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ACUS11 KWNS 202014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202014
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-202245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1327
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 PM CDT Mon Aug 20 2018

Areas affected...Parts of southern AR...northern LA...and
west-central MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 202014Z - 202245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage across
southern Arkansas, and then into northern Louisiana and west-central
Louisiana late this afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe
storms will be possible with locally strong wind gusts being the
primary threat.

DISCUSSION...Trends in lightning data indicated some increase in
thunderstorm development across far southern AR, as the southern
extent of stronger forcing for ascent spreading east through the
Ozarks region glances this area. Meanwhile, additional storms are
expected to form as the southern extent of a cold front advances to
the east/southeast across the discussion area, where the environment
has become very unstable (MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/kg). Westerly midlevel
winds should remain generally weaker with southward extent into
northern LA, resulting in effective bulk shear favoring multicell
storm modes. Given the presence of high CAPE, steep low-level lapse
rates, and DCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg, strong wind gusts should be
the primary severe-weather threat with any of the stronger/sustained
storms. The modest effective bulk shear should limit overall storm organization and coverage of severe storms. This factor maintains
uncertainty in the need for watch issuance, with convective trends
continuing to be monitored.

..Peters/Hart.. 08/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 32579296 33259229 33669155 33689082 33499004 33109002
32659024 32119104 31879164 31729213 31739261 31789297
32109327 32249331 32279335 32579296



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