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ACUS11 KWNS 292306
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292306
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-300130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0294
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0606 PM CDT Sun Apr 29 2018

Areas affected...Southeast Montana...Northwest South
Dakota...Southwest North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 292306Z - 300130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue across parts of the northern
high Plains through early evening. Isolated large hail and
marginally severe damaging wind gusts will be possible with the
stronger cores this evening. Weather watch issuance appears unlikely
due to the isolated and short duration of the threat.

DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough
over the northern high Plains oriented from central Montana
southeastward into western South Dakota where large-scale ascent is
enhanced. Thunderstorms have developed just ahead of the trough in
an area of moderate instability where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE
in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. RAP forecast soundings across eastern
Montana and southwest North Dakota generally show a relatively dry
boundary layer but have 30 to 40 kt of 0-6 km shear. The shear
combined with steep mid-level lapse rates near 8.0 C/km should be
enough to continue an isolated large hail threat through early
evening. The dry boundary layer may also help with downdraft
acceleration making marginally severe gusts possible. However, the
severe threat is expected to diminish later this evening as
instability decreases across the region likely making weather watch unnecessary.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 04/29/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON 45120615 44950469 44140356 44050275 44680163 45940160
47650239 47710521 46380624 45120615



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ACUS11 KWNS 082053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082052
ALZ000-MSZ000-082315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0294
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2019

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern MS into west-central AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 082052Z - 082315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated hail/wind threat may develop this afternoon.
Watch issuance is possible, but does not appear immediately likely.

DISCUSSION...In the wake of early morning convection, some clearing
has allowed for temperatures to warm into the upper 70s and lower
80s across parts of central/eastern MS and west-central AL. Mid to
upper 60s dewpoints are present to the east of a weak surface low
over southwestern MS, and MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg is present across
this region. Primary uncertainty remains whether convection will
redevelop as an upper low centered over LA and east TX moves slowly
eastward late this afternoon into the early evening. Some short-term convection-allowing model guidance suggests additional storm
development is a possibility, and shallow showers have recently
developed across parts of south-central/southeast MS where modest
low-level warm air advection is occurring. A 40-55 kt
south-southwesterly jet is moving over this region, and 30-35 kt of
effective bulk shear may be sufficient for occasional updraft
organization. Isolated hail and strong/gusty will be possible with
the strongest cores, and a brief tornado can not be ruled out with
some veering of the winds at low levels. Watch issuance is possible
over the next couple of hours depending on whether convection can
redevelop, but it is not immediately likely.

..Gleason/Hart.. 04/08/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 31688923 31468977 31679017 32069063 32999037 33818994
34278910 34358828 34068778 33248762 32758789 31688923



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ACUS11 KWNS 082105
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082105 COR
ALZ000-MSZ000-082315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0294
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0405 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2019

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern MS into west-central AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 082105Z - 082315Z

CORRECTED FOR HAZARD WORDING

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated hail/wind threat may develop this afternoon.
Watch issuance is possible, but does not appear immediately likely.

DISCUSSION...In the wake of early morning convection, some clearing
has allowed for temperatures to warm into the upper 70s and lower
80s across parts of central/eastern MS and west-central AL. Mid to
upper 60s dewpoints are present to the east of a weak surface low
over southwestern MS, and MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg is present across
this region. Primary uncertainty remains whether convection will
redevelop as an upper low centered over LA and east TX moves slowly
eastward late this afternoon into the early evening. Some short-term convection-allowing model guidance suggests additional storm
development is a possibility, and shallow showers have recently
developed across parts of south-central/southeast MS where modest
low-level warm air advection is occurring. A 40-55 kt
south-southwesterly jet is moving over this region, and 30-35 kt of
effective bulk shear may be sufficient for occasional updraft
organization. Isolated hail and strong/gusty winds will be possible
with the strongest cores, and a brief tornado can not be ruled out
with some veering of the winds at low levels. Watch issuance is
possible over the next couple of hours depending on whether
convection can redevelop, but it is not immediately likely.

..Gleason/Hart.. 04/08/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 31688923 31468977 31679017 32069063 32999037 33818994
34278910 34358828 34068778 33248762 32758789 31688923



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