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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1326

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, August 20, 2018 18:27:37
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    ACUS11 KWNS 201827
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 201827
    INZ000-202030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1326
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0127 PM CDT Mon Aug 20 2018

    Areas affected...Parts of northern/central Indiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 201827Z - 202030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few rotating storms possible within a moist environment
    near/along a surface warm front. Severe wind gusts will likely be
    the primary threat; however, a tornado or two may be possible. A WW
    is not anticipated, but trends will be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...A few storms within cluster along and near a warm front
    have shown some signs of mid-level rotation per KIND radar. While
    buoyancy has so far remained modest, with MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg,
    clearing south of the front should lead to increased instability
    into the afternoon. With the approach of a mid-level trough,
    effective bulk shear values have increased to 30-40 kts. While the
    main threat with this activity will likely be damaging wind gusts,
    enhanced SRH near the front and deep layer shear oriented
    perpendicular to the warm front, a few organized, quasi-discrete
    storms may acquire rotation. Given the moist environment with low
    LCLs, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out even with relatively
    meager low-level lapse rates. Questions about how discrete storms
    will be as well as the overall coverage of storms limit confidence
    in WW issuance. However, trends will continue to be monitored.

    ..Wendt/Hart.. 08/20/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...

    LAT...LON 41488729 41488663 41168594 40618524 40308511 40068524
    39758545 39408571 39258608 39658666 40208704 40788740
    41328745 41488729



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