• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1324

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, August 19, 2018 22:48:06
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    ACUS11 KWNS 192248
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 192247
    ARZ000-MOZ000-200045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1324
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0547 PM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

    Areas affected...southwest Missouri into northern Arkansas

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 343...

    Valid 192247Z - 200045Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 343 continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat of damaging winds and a few brief tornadoes
    continues across the watch area.

    DISCUSSION...Storms continued to develop across southwest MO and
    northwest AR, ahead of a weak surface low and near a diffuse warm
    front. The latest surface analysis indicates 2 hr pressure falls in
    excess of 2 mb, associated primarily with low-level warm air
    advection. Hodograph size on the SGF VAD wind profile has gradually
    been increasing, now with 0-1 SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2. This trend
    may persist over the next couple hours, coincident with an increase
    in the 850 mb flow. As such, the north-south oriented line of storms
    that moved out of KS into MO is becoming more of a QLCS with swaths
    of damaging wind and/or brief tornadoes possible.

    To the south and closer to the warm front, cells over AR are more
    robust overall in terms of being instability driven with hail cores
    evident on radar. Low-level shear is not as strong as farther north,
    but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out with this activity.

    ..Jewell.. 08/19/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...

    LAT...LON 35269249 35139403 35339419 35719416 36199421 36599432
    37009432 37419435 37839434 38139256 38129247 37799186
    37389149 36779125 36089124 35589154 35389189 35269249



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