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ACUS11 KWNS 192046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192045
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-192315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1323
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 PM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

Areas affected...Northeast OK...extreme southeast KS...southwest
MO...and northwest AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 192045Z - 192315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase some in coverage
and intensity across northeast Oklahoma into extreme southeast
Kansas this afternoon, and advance east into southwest Missouri and
northwest Arkansas. Locally strong wind gusts and perhaps a tornado
or two will be the greatest severe-weather threats. If convective
trends suggest an increase in coverage for stronger storms, then a
watch may need to be issued.

DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery indicated a gradual
increase in convective development from extreme southeast KS through
northeast and east-central OK, while GOES-16 visible imagery showed
sustained cumulus/cumulonimbus extending southward into northeast OK
(Craig and Rogers Counties) through 2025Z, with some lightning
detected. Although extensive cloudiness had been slow to erode from
the earlier MCS, breaks in the clouds this afternoon, especially in
a narrow corridor along and ahead of the aforementioned sustained
updrafts should boost buoyancy for additional thunderstorm
development through the late afternoon and early evening. The
increase in convection is likely being aided by forcing for ascent
advancing through southern KS and central OK, within the southern
extent of the central Plains shortwave trough. Vertically veering
wind profiles across the discussion area will result in effective
bulk shear up to 35-40 kt. Storm development should also be focused
along a warm front which extends from northeast OK across central
AR, while any storm interacting with this front could have an
increased tornado potential, given relatively enhanced low-level
shear.

..Peters/Hart.. 08/19/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON 35239491 36599553 37409465 37099311 36349238 35369209
34929245 34909393 35239491



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