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ACUS11 KWNS 191943
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191942
NMZ000-192215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1322
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

Areas affected...Portions of northeastern NM

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 191942Z - 192215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for isolated large hail should increase this
afternoon. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Within large-scale upper troughing across the
northern/central Plains, a shortwave trough with embedded vorticity
maximum is evident over eastern CO as of 1940Z. Northwesterly
mid-level flow of 35-40 kt will overspread parts of the southern
High Plains through this evening, and weak low-level flow will
continue to encouraging convective development along the Sangre de
Cristo Mountains and adjacent plains of northeastern NM this
afternoon. With a prior frontal passage across this region,
low-level moisture remains somewhat limited, and surface dewpoints
are generally in the 50s. This will likely prevent any more than
weak instability from developing through peak heating. RAP forecast
soundings across this region suggest that MLCAPE will remain
generally in the 500-750 J/kg range. Regardless, the strengthening mid/upper-level northwesterly flow will allow for 40-50 kt of
effective bulk shear, and one or two high-based supercells could
develop and move southeastward through the early evening. Mid-level
lapse rates are not overly steep, but the plentiful shear should
allow for mid-level updraft rotation and mainly an isolated large
hail threat.

..Gleason/Hart.. 08/19/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36310504 36740477 36950453 36920348 36520315 35470310
34920345 35010384 35160450 35640503 36030515 36310504



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