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ACUS11 KWNS 182334
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182334
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-190130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1321
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 PM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018

Areas affected...the southern High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 182334Z - 190130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to continue developing southeastward
toward the OK/TX panhandle region, with an overall increase in
coverage through evening. A few storms may produce severe wind or
hail.

DISCUSSION...Scattered storms currently exist from western KS into
northeast NM, ahead of a weak cold front and shortwave trough aloft.
The area is characterized by a moderately unstable air mass with
modest lapse rates aloft, and weakly veering winds with height.
Storm mode has been mixed through early evening, but a more linear
structure has formed over northeast NM, which will be entering into
the western Panhandles shortly. Other slow-moving cells persist over
western KS, with isolated severe hail cores noted on radar.

As the shortwave trough continues to shift southeast, lift will be
maintained over the region. Visible satellite imagery shows a
substantial CU field over the TX/OK Panhandles, indicative of little
if any inhibition and likely supportive of continued storm formation/sustenance. As such, a watch will be considered.

..Jewell/Thompson.. 08/18/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 35850475 36790370 37670274 38360237 38660204 38490155
38150100 37650046 37220028 36270003 35470029 34990085
34640185 34410275 34740363 35080434 35300463 35850475



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