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ACUS11 KWNS 182050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182050
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-182145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1320
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018

Areas affected...Portions of east-central/southeastern
CO...northeastern NM...the far western TX/OK Panhandles...and far
western KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 341...

Valid 182050Z - 182145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 341
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail remains the primary threat across
mainly the southern portions of WW 341 in the short term. The
damaging wind threat is still expected to increase later this
afternoon and early evening.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing convection remains generally confined to the
southern portions of WW 341. A couple of marginal supercell
structures have been noted over the past two hours, and isolated
instances of large hail will probably remain the primary severe
weather threat in the short term. It remains unclear how many
additional thunderstorms will form along a surface trough across
southeastern CO this afternoon. But with continued low-level
convergence along this boundary, at least scattered thunderstorm
coverage seems plausible. Another weak surface boundary is apparent
on visible satellite imagery extending west to east across
east-central CO into west-central KS. An isolated thunderstorm has
recently formed just to the south of Goodland, KS along this
boundary, and some potential may exist for more convective
development in east-central CO. Short-term guidance remains
insistent that convection will gradually grow upscale into one or
more clusters/lines by early this evening. Isolated strong to
damaging winds would become the primary concern across WW 341 and
downstream into western KS and the western TX/OK Panhandles if this
occurs.

..Gleason.. 08/18/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON 39520433 39530184 39090138 37000198 35240362 35240571
36740525 39520433



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