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ACUS11 KWNS 182026
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182026
NEZ000-COZ000-182300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1319
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0326 PM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018

Areas affected...Portions of western/central NE and far northeastern
CO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 182026Z - 182300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to locally damaging winds may occur with thunderstorms moving eastward through this evening. Watch issuance
is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...20Z surface observations show a lee trough located
across western NE and northeastern CO. Low-level convergence along
this boundary and large-scale ascent attendant to an eastward-moving
shortwave trough have acted to generate thunderstorms across this
region over the past hour or so. Temperatures in the mid to upper
80s, dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s, and modestly steep
mid-level lapse rates around 7.0 C/km are contributing to about
1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE along and east of the surface trough.
Similar to farther north in western SD, stronger mid-level
south-southwesterly winds are expected to generally lag to the west
of the surface boundary through the evening. This should limit
effective bulk shear values to no more than 20-25 kt across the warm
sector, and thunderstorms will likely struggle to become organized.
Even so, there may be some potential for isolated strong to locally
damaging winds given steep low-level lapse rates as convection
increases in coverage along the surface trough this afternoon into
the early evening. A couple instances of marginally severe hail
cannot be ruled out either. The overall severe threat will likely
remain too isolated/marginal to warrant watch issuance.

..Gleason/Hart.. 08/18/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 40460292 40970300 42000276 42490282 42940293 42950057
42220060 41060097 40530138 40450212 40460292



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