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ACUS11 KWNS 181846
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181845
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-182115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1317
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018

Areas affected...Southern VA...NC...and parts of northern SC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 181845Z - 182115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will increase through the afternoon
across southern Virginia, much of North Carolina, and parts of
northern South Carolina, with the strongest storms capable of
producing isolated strong/damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery into the early afternoon
showed an increase in coverage and intensity across south-central VA
(along and north of the NC/VA border from the counties of Halifax to Mecklenburg and Lunenburg). Visible satellite imagery indicated
clear skies across these counties allowed for stronger surface
heating and steepening low-level lapse rates, suggesting locally
strong wind gusts could occur with these storms as they advance
eastward in the shorter term. Meanwhile, across the rest of the
discussion area, diabatic heating of a very moist air mass
(precipitable water 1.8-2 inches and surface dew points in the lower
to middle 70s F) is contributing to moderate destabilization. Weak
midlevel lapse rates will limit updraft strength this afternoon.
However, a further increase in forcing for ascent is expected as a
shortwave trough, now crossing the southern Appalachians, proceeds
east through northern SC, NC and VA. This will aid in thunderstorm
development across the destabilizing environment, while some
strengthening of southwesterly low- to mid-level winds supports
storm organization.

Modest effective bulk shear up to 30 kt and weak midlevel lapse
rates should remain the limiting factors for a more widespread
severe storm threat, precluding the need for a severe thunderstorm
watch.

..Peters/Hart.. 08/18/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 34908191 35538150 36258043 36797895 37207779 37177685
36917610 36397606 35687642 34957780 34297933 34028037
34048101 34118161 34158181 34618211 34908191



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