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ACUS11 KWNS 181826
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181825
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-182030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1316
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018

Areas affected...Portions of east-central/southeastern
CO...northeastern NM...and the western TX/OK Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 181825Z - 182030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat should gradually increase this
afternoon, with isolated large hail and damaging winds the main
concerns. Watch issuance is probable for some portion of this
region.

DISCUSSION...Water vapor satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough
moving over central CO early this afternoon. Towering cumulus and a
few thunderstorms, mainly over the higher terrain, have been
observed on visible satellite and radar imagery in response to the
large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough. Strong
surface heating is underway across much of the Plains of
southeastern CO and northeastern NM. Steep mid-level lapse rates
were also present on the 12Z sounding from DNR. The combination of
diurnal heating, a relatively moist low-level airmass, and steep low
to mid-level lapse rates will contribute to around 1500-2500 J/kg of
MLCAPE by late afternoon. Initially isolated to scattered convection
will likely grow upscale along a surface lee through through the
afternoon as it develops eastward off the higher terrain. Although
mid-level winds will remain somewhat modest, around 25-30 kt, there
will be sufficient veering with height to support 25-35 kt of
effective bulk shear. Isolated large hail may be the primary concern
with initial mainly discrete development, with a gradual transition
to more of a damaging wind threat with eastward extent as storms
develop into a line.

..Gleason/Hart.. 08/18/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36620218 36140270 35780344 35780439 36110506 37000494
37910492 38720483 39130461 39140341 39060253 38750207
36620218



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